The race for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairpersonship has intensified, with Djibouti’s Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf emerging as the frontrunner against Kenya’s Raila Odinga. This year’s contest is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent memory, with shifting alliances and high-stakes political maneuvering dominating the landscape.
Allegations and Denials
Recent claims that Youssouf was considering stepping down in favor of Kenya’s former Prime Minister Raila Odinga have been dismissed. The Eastleigh Voice reported that Youssouf refuted these rumors, reaffirming his candidacy and ongoing campaign efforts.
Additionally, allegations surfaced that the Kenyan government had offered Youssouf a bribe of Ksh 6 billion to step aside. However, these claims have also been dismissed due to a lack of credible evidence.
Why the Race Has Tightened
The contest has moved beyond a simple two-horse race, with new endorsements and alliances reshaping the playing field. After Raila secured the East African Community’s (EAC) endorsement, Youssouf gained a significant boost from the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), which includes 27 African member states. This endorsement, reportedly finalized at an OIC meeting in Cameroon in late August 2024, could provide Youssouf a strategic advantage.
However, the influence of OIC members is not guaranteed, as key nations like Uganda, Nigeria, and Guinea-Bissau are believed to be backing Raila. Meanwhile, North African OIC members such as Algeria, Egypt, Libya, and Morocco may focus on their candidate for the AUC deputy chairperson position rather than fully supporting Youssouf.
Challenges for Raila
Raila Odinga’s path to victory faces several hurdles, including the Francophone bloc, which has historically voted as a unit and dominated AUC leadership in the past. Analysts predict that this bloc, combined with Central African nations, may rally behind Youssouf, making it challenging for Raila to secure their support.
Southern Africa also poses a challenge. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) abstained in the 2017 elections, contributing to Kenya’s loss, and their voting patterns remain unpredictable. The presence of candidates from Madagascar and Mauritius further complicates the race, potentially splitting votes in the region.
Also READ: Raila Odinga: AUC Seat Not a Matter of Life and Death
Kenya is actively lobbying for support, with Uganda, Tanzania, and South Sudan backing Raila, but Rwanda and Burundi’s positions remain unclear. Kenya’s strengthening ties with Morocco could help sway North African votes, while West Africa’s ECOWAS bloc might negotiate their support in exchange for backing their Commonwealth candidate.
Mahmoud Ali Youssouf’s Edge
Youssouf appears to have the upper hand, bolstered by OIC support and the potential unity of Francophone Africa. The historical influence of French-speaking nations in AUC elections cannot be overlooked, as their voting bloc has often determined outcomes.
Raila’s Prospects
Despite enjoying EAC support and being regarded as a Pan-Africanist with a strong track record, Raila faces significant challenges in numbers and alliances. His campaign will require strategic lobbying and diplomatic compromises to overcome the well-coordinated support for his competitors.
As the race unfolds, it is clear that Youssouf is in a strong position to secure the AUC chairmanship, unless Kenya can mount a robust diplomatic push in the coming weeks.
